Why is a 70% Win Rate Unrealistic When Betting on the NFL?

The sport gambling industry is one which lacks regulation, which means anyone can start a company, website or used car salesman persona to begin selling picks. Because there’s absolutely no regulation, handicappers can tout false records and guarantees of unimaginable wealth so as to receive business.

While there are many legitimate and translucent handicappers in the market, in addition, there are an overwhelming number using fake names, flashy automobiles, women of suspicious clothing and morals (we are guessing) and unachievable records to convince new or uneducated bettors to purchase their selections.

Even though this might sound a bit over the top, we often get calls asking why people don’t hit 70% of our matches such as many of the other providers out there. Our response is always that a 70% win rate is not attainable over the long run.

To describe this in more detail, we analyzed the probability that a sports bettor can win 70 percent of all wagers to illustrate just how unrealistic this is.

For the purposes of this article, we chose the z-ratio (also referred to as z-score) to demonstrate the number of standard deviations away from”anticipated” an occasion is.

Example 1: No Edge

This example assumes a handicapper who hits 50 percent of his matches, meaning the handicapper doesn’t have any advantage when choosing games. The data assumes 1,000 plays against the spread (with a vig of -110) within a calendar year, across all major US sports.

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